Powerball vs Mega Millions — Which Lottery Is Better to Play?
Powerball vs Mega Millions — Which Lottery Is Better to Play?
It's the most common lottery question in America: should you buy a Powerball ticket or a Mega Millions ticket? They're both $2, both available everywhere, and both promise life-changing jackpots. So what's the actual difference?
More than you'd think.
The Numbers Side by Side
| Feature | Powerball | Mega Millions | |---------|-----------|---------------| | Ticket cost | $2 | $2 | | Main numbers | 5 from 1–69 | 5 from 1–70 | | Bonus ball | 1 from 1–26 (Powerball) | 1 from 1–25 (Mega Ball) | | Jackpot odds | 1 in 292,201,338 | 1 in 302,575,350 | | Any prize odds | 1 in 24.9 | 1 in 24 | | Drawings | Mon, Wed, Sat | Tue, Fri | | Starting jackpot | $20 million | $20 million | | Second prize | $1,000,000 | $1,000,000 | | Lowest prize | $4 | $2 | | Power Play/Megaplier | $1 extra (up to 10x) | $1 extra (up to 5x) |
Jackpot Odds: Powerball Wins (Slightly)
Powerball's jackpot odds of 1 in 292.2 million are about 3.4% better than Mega Millions' 1 in 302.6 million. That's because Powerball draws from 26 bonus balls while Mega Millions draws from 25 — counterintuitively, the larger bonus pool (26 vs 25) makes Powerball slightly easier because the main pool is smaller (69 vs 70).
That 10 million difference in odds sounds big, but in practice it's negligible. You're not going to "feel" the difference between 1 in 292M and 1 in 302M. Both are essentially impossible.
Edge: Powerball (barely)
Second Prize: Powerball Wins (Clearly)
Both games pay $1 million for matching all 5 main numbers without the bonus ball. But the odds differ:
- Powerball: 1 in 11.7 million
- Mega Millions: 1 in 12.6 million
Powerball gives you about 8% better odds at the $1M tier. Over a lifetime of playing, this is probably the most meaningful statistical difference between the two games.
Edge: Powerball
Overall Odds of Winning Anything: Mega Millions Wins
Mega Millions gives you a 1 in 24 chance of winning any prize per ticket, compared to Powerball's 1 in 24.9. That's about 4% better.
The minimum Mega Millions prize is $2 (matching just the Mega Ball), while Powerball's minimum is $4 (matching just the Powerball). So Mega Millions pays out more frequently but at a lower floor.
Edge: Mega Millions (slightly)
Expected Value: It Depends on the Jackpot
At equivalent jackpot levels, Powerball has a marginally higher expected value because of its better odds. But the jackpots are rarely equivalent — one game is always higher than the other.
The practical rule: Whichever game has the higher jackpot this week typically has the better expected value. Don't overthink it.
Check our EV Calculator to see which game is the better deal right now based on current jackpots.
The Multiplier: Powerball's Hidden Advantage
Both games offer a $1 add-on to multiply non-jackpot prizes:
- Power Play (Powerball): 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x, or 10x when jackpot is under $150M
- Megaplier (Mega Millions): 2x, 3x, 4x, or 5x
That 10x option is significant. A $50,000 third-tier prize becomes $500,000 with Power Play 10x. Mega Millions caps at 5x ($250,000 for the same tier).
If you're going to spend the extra dollar on the multiplier, Powerball's Power Play is objectively better.
Edge: Powerball
Draw Schedule: Personal Preference
Powerball draws Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday. Mega Millions draws Tuesday and Friday. Between the two, you can play 5 nights a week if you want. Many regular players buy both — a Powerball on Wednesday and a Mega Millions on Friday, for example.
The schedule difference is actually useful: it lets you spread your lottery budget across the week instead of blowing it all on one night.
Edge: Tie (depends on your schedule)
Tax Implications: Same Everywhere
Federal lottery tax (24% withholding, up to 37% effective) is identical for both games. State tax depends on where you bought the ticket, not which game you played.
The best states to win either game:
- Texas, Florida, Washington, Tennessee: 0% state lottery tax
- Worst: New York (10.9%), Maryland (8.95%), Oregon (9.9%)
Use our lottery tax calculator to see exactly what you'd keep in your state.
Historical Jackpot Records
| Rank | Amount | Game | Date | State | |------|--------|------|------|-------| | 1 | $2.04B | Powerball | Nov 2022 | California | | 2 | $1.765B | Powerball | Oct 2023 | California | | 3 | $1.602B | Mega Millions | Aug 2023 | Florida | | 4 | $1.537B | Mega Millions | Oct 2018 | South Carolina | | 5 | $1.348B | Mega Millions | Jan 2023 | Maine |
Powerball holds the top two spots, but Mega Millions has produced more billion-dollar jackpots overall. Both games reset to $20M after someone wins, and both grow at similar rates.
So Which Should You Play?
Play Powerball if:
- You want slightly better jackpot odds (1 in 292M vs 302M)
- You want the Power Play 10x option
- You prefer Monday/Wednesday/Saturday draws
Play Mega Millions if:
- The Mega Millions jackpot is currently higher
- You want slightly better odds of winning any prize
- You prefer Tuesday/Friday draws
The honest answer: The mathematical differences are tiny. Both are -EV bets with astronomical odds. If you're going to play, the biggest factors are:
- Current jackpot size — play whichever is higher (better EV)
- Number selection — use Anti-Popular picks to reduce split risk
- Budget — decide your weekly lottery budget and stick to it
Don't play both games "because one of them has to hit." That's not how probability works. Each drawing is independent.
One More Thing: State Games Might Be Better Than Both
If you're playing purely for the best mathematical return, neither Powerball nor Mega Millions is your best option. State games like Lotto Texas (1 in 25.8M), FL Lotto (1 in 23M), and CA SuperLotto Plus (1 in 41.4M) all have dramatically better odds.
You won't win a billion dollars, but you might actually win.
Check current jackpots and expected value for all games on our EV Calculator. Generate smart picks with our number generator. See what you'd keep after taxes with our calculator.